Sitting on a train between Ottawa and Montreal with nothing to do but day dream so thought this might be an interesting exercise, would love additional input to the model and the numbers if anyone is interested. Going to see if I remember how to derive a PV price from all input on the day after approval is announced. I'll post the results and the excel once done, should make for an interesting bun fight amongst our fellow readers.

Thanks,

OOG

Assuming the following and am looking at diabetes realm only:

FDA Approval for the whole shabang (Type I & II)

Share Count 500M

Outstanding Debt: $500M ???

Partner: none, Mr Mann takes is via the share count and some convertable instrument

10 year market protection (patents)

Annual Cost of treatment: $2200

Contribution Margin per patient: $1000

Market Size 40M NA + 30M Euro + Remainder (currently negating)

Market Penetration Years 1-10 (1%,2%,3%,4%,6%,10%,15%,20%,25%,30%) just guessing though, but thats why I love spread sheets.

Rate of Reinvestment for build out year 1-5: 50%???

Simple Tax Rate 30%

Tax Right offs of $1B

Dividend Rate 4% (probably better to roll it over on Build out)

Pharma P/E ratio: 10X ???