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Message: Re: Decision time

Jul 05, 2012 09:31AM

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Jul 05, 2012 10:01AM

I also started buying in early 2010 and averaged down after the first CRL. Although I am a "dead ender" with MNKD and intend to hold out till the last, I knew that the 2nd CRL meant a longterm downward trend, so I sold out and reloaded a little lower ( I could have been more patient). Since then I have continued to buy small bits and LEAPS. My intention is to sell the LEAPS on any price spikes (if there is ever any good news, as I can't recall any in over 2 years).

My basic premise is that this is an important new therapy for one of the world's biggeat health problems. But this view is tempered by Al's own "list of the 10 most important things in creating a successful product" in which the product itself is dead last. As I posted in the Seeking Alpha comments:

From a medical and scientific point of view Afrezza clearly seems like an important new treatment option for both T1 and T2 diabetics.

From a regulatory and political viewpoint there is always uncertainty, and extreme risk aversion can derail even a seemingly safe and effective treatment.

From a financial and investment standpoint regulatory hurdles, questions about the ultimate acceptance of Afrezza by doctors and patients, and concerns about the ability of a small independent biotech firm, even one backed by a billionaire entrepreneur, to find the capital needed to bring the drug to market are all significant risks, as is the question of finding a marketing partner.

In short, Afrezza appears to be an important new treatment for diabetics, but its successful launch as a commercial product still presents big risks for investors.


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Jul 05, 2012 02:00PM
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