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Message: Is Dilution Priced In?

When I say dilution is nothing, I am comparing dilution to the alternatives. Let's be realistic here. The company has huge amount of debt already. There is very little assets the company can leverage while the management is not willing to sell out the future earnings of the drug for an upfront payment enough to get through the trials and marketing.

So what the options here? Very little. One must not dream of something that is nearly impossible. Minimal dilution only comes with debt raising, which the company had shown almost impossible to do.

Frankly, I don't think Al is willing to raise new debt that is the senior to his old debt loan to the company. If that happens, a third CRL will put the company in the hands of the new debt owner.

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Just look at other small bios, selling their drug for 50, 60 million upfront payment and then collects 10% royalty. Unless their drugs turn out to be blockbuster, they will be bleeding cash even after the marketing of their drugs.

Yeah, ideal way would be raising debt. Unfortunately, the company can't do it. Al probably didn't want to do it that way.

So we are left with issuing new shares. After thinkiing about future stock price, I still think dilution is nothing. I am comfortable buying shares now, rather than later.

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