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Message: Quantifying Dilution Risk

You are correct that the proceeds from the exercise of warrants will be too late to offset dilution from other sources since the warrants expire in 2016.Thanks for keeping me honest.On Feb. 8, 2012 warrants were issued -- with a Feb. 8, 2016 expiration -- to purchase 21,562,500 shares at a $2.40 strike.I do not know how many options and how much restricted stock has been granted to employees.There are quite a few filings to go through.I didn't see any reference to any other warrants.

If the company wants to issue convertible debt with the right to retire it, the conversion option has almost no value.At this point, I don't see investors being willing to buy convertibles that can be called.

I agree with you that the number of authorized but unissued shares has no bearing on future dilution.If funds are needed, the number of shares authorized will increase.

I think they need unissued shares for all convertible notes, but 2013 and 2015 convertible notes only require 2.5 million and 14.7 million shares respectively for the conversion.

So, warrants plus convertibles require about 39 million unissued shares.

From Mannkind's June 2012 10-Q:

Antidilutive securities, which consist of stock options, restricted stock units, warrants, and shares that could be issued upon conversion of the senior convertible notes, that are not included in the diluted net loss per share calculation consisted of an aggregate of 61,741,900 shares and 32,048,936 shares as of June 30, 2012 and 2011, respectively, and exclude the 9,000,000 shares loaned under the share lending arrangement.

I am not an equity analyst, I work in the fixed income and credit markets, so I not an expert in reading the financial statements.I don't know why they are calling these antidilutive.I don't see how they could increase the eps or decrease the number of shares outstanding, which is what I always considered that antidilutive means.

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