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I thought that my valuation post was bullish.If we assume that if all goes according to plan, that the share price goes to $10, and that the other assumptions below are reasonable, then the expected share price is $5.78.This is almost 3 times the current price.How many stocks can you say that about?Remember that the $5.78 is risk adjusted and that there were some conservative assumptions used to get to the $10 share price.

For those with a math background, here is how I got to $5.78. Of course if you do not agree with my assumptions, you can change them or let me know and I can put them in my spreadsheet and re-post.

P = Event of Finding a Partner (Includes other Commercialization Risks)

~P = Event of Not Finding a Partner

F = Event of FDA Approval

~F = Event of Not Getting FDA Approval

P(P|F) = Probability of Finding Partner Given FDA Approval

Assume P(~F and P)

0%

Assume P(F)

85%

Assume P(P|F)

60%

Assumed Share Price if F and P

10

Assumed Share Price if F and not P

2

Assumed Share Price if not F and not P

0

Assumed Share Price if not F and P

N/A

P(F and P) = P(P) = P(F) * P(P|F)

51%

P(F and ~P) = P(F) - P(P)

34%

P(~F and ~P) = 1 - P(F)

15%

P(~F and P)

0%

Expected Share Price

5.78
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