Here is my attempt at estimating the share price prior to the next PDUFA.

The Dec 2010 10-K states that there were 72,206,822 shares authorized but not issued. It further states that substantially all of these shares are reserved for future issuance pursuant to outstanding equity awards, equity plans, the 2013 convertible, the 2015 convertible, and the Seaside and Mann purchase agreements.

This and the following information leads me to believe that the restricted shares and company options at this time amount to somewhat less than but close to 27 million shares. This also seems reasonable, since as of November, 2012 there were 31.8 million restricted shares and options, including the available restricted shares. Since there were 9.3 million available restricted shares as of November 2012, I am assuming that there were 17.8 million restricted shares and company options granted on or before 12/31/2010.

There were 127.8 million shares outstanding on 12/31/2010. Adding the remaining 25.2 million potential Seaside and Mann shares, which at that time seemed likely to be issued, brings the total to 153 million shares. Adding the shares from the conversion of the 2015 convertible -- which also seemed likely, with a conversion price of $6.80 -- brings the total to 167.7 million shares. Finally adding the 17.8 million restricted shares and company options that I assume were granted brings the total to something approaching 185.5 million shares.

Since I assume that as of Nov 2012 (see my January 16th post in this thread) there are some 400 million shares that are likely issued, the possible share price just before PDUFA could be roughly half or slightly less than half of what it was last time. This estimate is only considering the number shares; other factor will also affect the share price.

Factors that could cause the share price to be greater than half of what it was last time:

• If the perceived probability of FDA approval just before PDUFA is greater this time than it was the last time: Mannkind benefits from the knowledge of the last CRL and better understand the FDA requirements.
• If the type I trial shows superiority: It is unlikely that there are unforeseen outcomes in the current trials since there have been so many previous trials. It is also more likely that they can show superiority this time because the presence of the third party monitor should increase compliance.
• The perception that label and the market might be larger this time because of the interest in treating Type 2 diabetes with insulin at an earlier stage.
• The 2010 10-K stated that patent protection for Afrezza extends to 2020, and for the inhaler and cartridge to 2023. The June 2012 10-Q states: "... some patents providing protection for our AFREZZA inhalation powder expired in 2012, other patents providing similar protection will remain in force into 2031" If this is true, it is a big plus. If not, the clock has ticked away 3 years of protection. This is not my area of expertise. If anyone can comment, it would be appreciated.

Risks:

• The share price is not above $2.60 on 12/15/2013 and the convertible does not get converted: In this case, there will be a need to raise money under adverse conditions.
• There is an unforeseen problem with the trials.

Conclusion: The share price could be in the range of 4 to 5 dollars just before PDUFA and possibly much higher.

Here are some of the details: