Right now I have to worry about capacity constraints and how fast they can ramp up production. I'm doing a little thinking aloud here.
If I remember correctly, they have one line and had postponed delivery of 2 more.
They had planned to launch in 2011 with 3 lines and could serve 400,000 patients. This would generate 800M in revenue.
Total capacity of Danbury is to serve 2M patients and generate 4B in revenue. So 15 lines?
Expanding the label to include all diabetics (I'm not including the prediabetics here) will triple the potential market.
If in 2010 we had a s/p of 10, and were valued at 2B MC, the stats are 400,000 patients, 800M revenue, 80M earnings (10% of revenue), .40 EPS (200M shares), and PE = 25. This is at capacity for 3 lines.
Now we will have a larger potential market, but I can't increase the revenue projection without knowing if they can add lines quickly.
So I guess my question is how quickly can they add lines?