Hi Bob,
First off, thanks for your spreadsheet. I've spent the last couple hours looking through it and here's my take on the assumptions. Keep in mind my background is medical, not business. Overall, I think you're being very conservative in adoption numbers and rates. I tend to be conservative as well, but I do think this will really take off once it gets into the market. And as I mentioned in my previous post, I believe for every patient put on Afrezza, we can assume $2000 per year in sales.
Your assumptions are:
T1 and T2 on insulin - 25% market in 7 years
T2 on oral only - 25% market in 9 years
T2 on no meds - no market
prediabetics - 5% market in 10 years
My assumptions would be:
T1, T2 (insulin or oral or both) - 25% in 5 years
T2 on no meds - 10% in 5 years
prediabetics - 10% in 7 years
Granted, at this stage, it's all hypothetical. Anyone's guess is as good as anything. But I really believe my assumptions are conservative because I truly believe that in 10 years we can all but do away with prandial insulin inections - save for patients unable or unwilling to inhale a medication.
Thanks once again!!!