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Message: Bab

I don't know, newtomann, I could see the stock price being anywhere from $1.50 to $5.00 come December 2013. Any higher or lower than that, and things may have gotten really bad or really good in a way I do not anticipate. My best guess would be around $3 to $3.50, as we will still be too far away from an FDA date that a run-up will have started - people realize they can wait till the last minute on those things. I'm hoping that good news regarding the trials and a timely filed application with the FDA will alone be enough to keep the stock around $3; any partnership fever or an actual deal could push it to $5 or a little beyond, and an anticipatory run-up might get us to the higher single digits, but until the FDA gives us our approval, I'm not looking for anything over $8 or so. Too much dilution since the last CRL to reach the $12 - $13 range, even with the Type 2 possibilities, which fortunately, really opens up our market.

I closed out some Jan 2013 $2.50 puts I had sold a few months ago, made decent money on them, but figured it was worth .07/share to close them, rather than risk the stock dipping below $2.50 by a week from this Friday and having to bite the bullet and buy another slug of shares. Actually, I don't have any shares, I only have the warrants, but I still have a lot of open put positions out there for future months. The percentage return is very good, but you (or at least I) can't get any margin advantage. In other words, if I sell 100 June 2.50 put contracts, I need to have $25,000 in cash or value of marginable securities up as collateral. On a more conventional stock, for example, a $30 stock, you could sell 10 $25 strike puts and instead of having to put up $25,000, you only have to put up maybe $7,000 - $8,000. Then again, leverage can kill.

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