Re: Breakout
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 12, 2013 12:52PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
At work now, so I have some time, LOL. Ah, the privileges of being old!
Jeff, I can understand your point about exercising the warrants, and then holding the stock for whatever period it takes until you get the price you want. But the nice thing about a warrant (which is very, very much like an option, especially for purposes of this discussion), is that it has a time value.
Your fully converted price into stock at $3.35 means to me that your average price in the warrants is in the .55 to .60 range, not dissimilar to mine. So, you multiply, to keep it easy, .60 by 10/6 (to reflect the .6 ratio) and you get $1.00, then you add the $2.40 to exercise and you get a price of $3.40 (and no doubt, that's how you figured your price of $3.35).
Ever since I began purchasing warrants, I realized that the stock would have to get above $3.30 or so before the warrant might start to make better sense than just buying the stock. What I was hoping for in going out to Feb of 2016, is that the stock might get to $10 or more by then, in which case the leverage of buying the warrants rather than the stock made sense. If by Feb of 2016 the stock is under, say $3.50, things won't work out very well at all.
But, just like an option, you want to keep the warrant as long as possible, or at least until the time value of the warrant is essentially zero. That will happen in the last few weeks until expiry, or January 2016, but also depending on what the stock price is. If the price of the stock is .75 in October 2015, the time value will be the only value, but it will be very small. If the price of the stock in October 2015 is $20, the time value will be very small compared to the intrinsic value. In late January 2016, the exercise or sell the warrant decision will be upon us. The time value will be irrelevant. If you want out of MNKD at that point and the warrant is still trading like it is now (big spreads and poor liquidity), then it may be best to exercise and then sell the stock. If, like I suspect and hope, the spread is small and trading is easy, you can elect to skip a step and just trade away the warrant. If you want to stay in MNKD at that point, you exercise the warrant, but you need to come up with the money to buy the stock. You can also sell the warrant, take the money and buy the stock, depending on your own liquidity.
As an example of why an early exercise is disastrous (please excuse me if you already understand this, but others might not), let's put the .6 thing aside and let's just say one had a long leap option in AAPL stock (1 contract for 100 shares). Your option gives you the right to buy 100 AAPL shares at $430 by January 2015 (say the stock is now at $430). You bought that option recently for, say, $50. Well, you have a right to exercise it anytime between now and January 2015, so if you exercised it now, you would now own AAPL, but you would have paid $430 per share, the current AAPL price. Your $50 time value has just evaporated! So you do not exercise early, you either trade the option (warrant) or you wait.
BTW, I put an order in about 2 hours ago to sell 10,000 warrants at 1.12 - as of half hour or so ago, 1,000 had filled.