There are actually two tranches of the October 2013 warrants, one of which was purchased by Mann. The proceeds from the 40,000,000 of Mann's October 2013 warrants if exercised will be $78 million. The proceeds from the 46,000,000 3rd party October 2013 warrants if exercised will be $89.7 million.
However, the proceeds from Mann's exercise will create a simultaneous reduction in the letter of credit of $78 million.
The $89.7 million proceeds from the 3rd party exercise will help to cover the $115 million convertible note that matures on 12/15/2013.
In my opinion, if the warrants are not exercised, the share price will drop because there will be a funding problem. They will have to go to the capital markets on short notice and probably at unfavorable terms. I think that part of reason for the recent share price rally has been due to the price getting well over the $2.60 exercise price, giving comfort that the warrants will get exercised. So, I think that the warrant exercise at this point, is a non-issue and may even be a slight positive. Also, if the warrants are not exercised, then we can be sure that the share price would have to be near or below $2.60 on the expiration date.