Not sure why the comparison to MNKD (why not just state your buyout case about Arena). Perhaps the author saw the reaction of mnkd stock and figured if he said Arena's chances were better, there would be even a better reaction to the share price - good luck on that!
Arena and Vivus are interesting. The way I look at them, though, is if a person is significantly obese, say 300 lbs, is a 10 0r 12% weight loss really going to be what they are looking for? If those drugs could deliver 30% weight loss, now we'd be talkin' big share price moves.