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Message: Re: 9 out of 17 companies acquired...Swing

"On timing of upcoming PR's what kind of impact to August 13 and March 2014 options would we see if management were able to pull a rabbit out of their hat and beat the timing expectations? I am thinking there might be some opportunities surrounding those 2 binary events that could be exploited."

Tough questions, Swing. For example, if you think PR no.1 re results will be this week, obviously the August 9 (weekly) calls would offer great potential leverage, if the results are good and the stock goes up. You can also do the regular Aug 17 calls, and I think weekly calls are offered thought the first Friday in September, so lots of flexibility.

I don't see any March 2014 options offered yet, but the same thing would apply re receiving approval earlier than anticipated.

Here's the thing, though, we are already gambling on the results, when you add another gamble on timing of same, well, you need to get pretty darn lucky to hit it right.

I'm considering a certain play, but far from certain I will do it, as I have enough for me. In essence, here it is: you buy 10000 of the Feb 2016 MNKDW warrants (number picked for ease in calculation) and pay $38,000 for them. Concurrently therewith, you sell 60 contracts (6000 shares, which is the amount of shares that would be completely covered by the 10,000 warrants) of January 2015 calls, and get about $13,000. If MNKD is a disappointment, you make $13,000 you would not have made otherwise. If it goes over $15 by January 2015, you are covered by the warrants, on which you would have made money (they would be trading for at least $8.20 in January 2015 if the stock were at $15).

Since I already have warrants, I might just sell some of those January 15 calls, but I'm not sure, there are margin issues, etc. I've already sold earlier dated calls, but none for as high a strike as 15.

You can do essentially the same thing with shares of the stock, and that may well work out better for you margin-wise, as I don't think you will need to put up additional money to secure share covered calls, as opposed to warrant covered calls.

Calls and puts are so expensive to buy, that buying put insurance is tough. Again, you can get it cheaper if you went August 9th, but I wouldn't take that risk, I'd go at least to August 23, if not the first week of September. Can you imagine paying sizeable dollars for put insurance and have the insurance expire a couple of days before bad news is released?

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