good post, chris. the prob with defining this as a binary event is that even though i've been callling it one- it's not a yes or no event like the PDUFA date will be (actually the label makes it more complicated but you get the idea). therefore it won't follow binary event calculations and instead will be more dynamic. i do think the calcs are possibly valid in the extremes, such as the results are really bad or really good (even then i think we move lower on bad results than we move higher on good results). i think you're right that the bmy hiring is not related to afrezza, and you should usually accept the null hypothesis. but it's kinda fun to speculate a little. honestly i thought we'd have an other bear raid but i thought we'd go lower, which is why i had a stretch buy at 6.05 GTC. i'm gonna cancel it now b/c i doubt we have another bear raid for a few weeks/months.