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Message: Re: Thoughts on the Dow

Re: Thoughts on the Dow

posted on Feb 05, 2008 09:18AM

Coswil, excellent points on the bond insurers and rate cuts!  You've  resolved many of the questions I've held regarding the Fed's motives, and I'm beginning to understand why these rate cuts are completely necessary for the financial markets and economy to in the very least minimize a recession and hopefully recover. 

According to a few sources I've read, the next rate cut is anticipated for the March 18th Fed meeting.  The number of sub-prime mortgages due in March & April is staggering, and given what you've said it would seem the Fed will need to cut rates again before this.  They've lost a lot of face for the reactive approach evident January 22nd, and with the upcoming American primarys and election I'm banking on the Fed assuming a more pro-active stance going forward. The indicators you've suggested will be helpful for navigating the volitility that is yet to come.

I find it fascinating to observe the convergence of Technical and Fundemental indicators in shaping the markets.  In the absence of 'significant' fundemental data, it is almost certain that technical analysis is an able-footed sherpa.  Al, a lot of credit to you sir for your technical skills and especially for predicting thiis pullback weeks ago!  The DOW is presently 12,350, and drifting toward 12,000 with a retest for this week looking likely.

I'm of the opinion that for many of us, the DOW during the next few months will have far more influence over Jr. Miner portfolios than company NRs.  Presently, I am long on Al in the short-run, and long on Coswil in the long-run. 

GLTA

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