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Message: Conservative Hypotheticals...

Conservative Hypotheticals...

posted on Feb 26, 2008 12:22PM

Posted by: Bentonstocks on February 26, 2008 05:19PM

Some math to consider...

We have 8 geophysical targets in the vicinity of DE1, including DE1.

Let's say of 6 out of the 8, including DE1, contain an average 5 million tonnes of ore each at an average rock value of $650/tonne (I know DE1 probably contains more, but we are being conservative here to make point). And let's say the other 2 are duds.

That would be 30 million tonnes worth a gross value of $19.5 billion. Not including any consideration for deeper minerlization that may connect at least some of the anomalies (such as the so-called "ghost bridges").

Discount to NPV of 15% (could probably higher given the tonnage), which is $2.925 billion, and divide that by, let's say 140,000,000 shares, and that equals a valuation of roughly $21/share. I take this to be conservative given my tonnage assumption, and the $650 average rock value, per anomaly.

Just to compare, if we were boost the values in our above scenario to an average of 7 million tonnes with an average rock value of $850/tonne, per anomaly, that would increase the valuation to $38.25/share.

Given that the hit on Eagle 2 has confirmed that the geophysics are 'tuned' to finding this Ni-Cu-PGM minerlization, I thinks its reasonable to conclude that the probability is now much higher that there will be at least 4 other 'eagles' landing.  In addition, bear in mind that at least some of these 'eagles' are probably sitting on the same branch(s)...

Do ya 'feel' me?

Regards,

B.

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