goldfinger

Your the one that kept flagging Al's posts as violations.

"Would anybody care if this hub disappeared? Since Al left there is very little posting. I keep peeking in just in case. Goldfinger"

I believe that Al left because you and others where too much of a pain in the ass for him.

Many here miss his forthright, shoot from the hip thoughts

Now your complaining that this board is dead.......

Rise up to the occasion and contribute, not complain

Our do you feel some sense of victory because Al's gone

If you have nothing good to say, stay quite.

IMHO

Highgrader

Al's Tuesday morning thoughts

Good morning. Overnight in Asia, following the lead of Wall St yesterday, the major indices are down sharply. The Hang Seng is down 4.98% and the Nikkei is down 6.35%. Australia slashed interest rates by a full 1% point and Japan's central bank said it would accept a wider range of corporate debt as eligible collateral to ease Japanese companies' quickly shrinking access to funding as the end of the year approaches. Japan has been relatively immune to the damage from the global credit crisis, but the fallout has spread recently with investors shunning credit products, forcing companies to turn to bank loans as rates on commercial paper have jumped. A Reuters poll showed on Tuesday that confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell at its sharpest pace on record in November, business confidence had fallen sharply to its lowest in seven years. Financing conditions for small to mid sized firms are more severe than those for big companies. But financing by big companies is becoming more difficult as conditions for funding via markets, through corporate bonds and commercial paper, are deteriorating. The Bank of Japan will launch a new scheme in January under which it
will lend unlimited funds to financial institutions at the overnight call rate with corporate debt as collateral.

In Europe the major indices turned from a sell off at the open and are now all trading in positive territory. Forgotten memories are what occurred in North America yesterday, or the slide in Asia overnight. Bank stocks and commodity stocks were the biggest drags to the European indices, with the price of oil falling below $48 at one point. However the price of oil has rebounded and now some the larger oil stocks are trading positive. Bank stocks are very volatile in Europe so far today as investors digest news of more global central bank action to rescue weakening economies. Investor sentiment is very fragile as many analysts continue to be pessimistic for the prospects for a sustained recovery for stocks. At the macro level, there is plenty to fear. At the moment, most things that can go wrong seem to be going wrong. The actions that have been taken will take time to have effect. Investors don't have patience. Investors will eye interest rate decisions this week from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The two central banks are expected to serve up further monetary policy easing on Thursday. Banks stocks are being whipsawed in Europe amid the darkening global economic outlook. After last weeks big rebound in the European indices to close out the month of November, the indices are back to square one to start off the month of December. The markets appear to be trying to find the level that prices in the current global recession, the whipsaws from day to day are trying to determine just where that level should be. It is tough for investors as the Central Banks just clear up one area of concern and then the next shoe drops and the markets gains are wiped out and we start all over again. This clearly shows we are still in for a rough ride for the next several months and cash is still king. Investors that are in snipe mode and play the markets on the daily trends, then go to cash at the end of the day, are the clear winners in these types of markets.

On this side of the pond in North America, yesterday proved to be one of the worst days in history, as the selling was relentless and fear ruled the day. The early futures are pointing to a positive open for the US indices, trying to recover from yesterday's bloodbath. On the economic calendar for today will be the reporting of auto and truck sales for the month of November. Detroit's automakers, making a second bid for $25 billion in funding, are presenting Congress with plans today to restructure their ailing companies and provide assurances that the funding will help them survive and thrive. All three companies are filing separate plans. Congressional hearings are planned for Thursday and Friday. With the early futures pointing to a positive open and a slight rebound in commodity prices, it could/should be a decent day for the Canadian indices.

Back in McFaulds Lake it was another day of sell offs for the majority of the stocks. NOT actually held up well and was only down 6.77% on the day. From the chart of NOT it has support at $.52 and resistance at $.58 with the 13(MA) now at $.61 and appearing to flatline. For those wishing to own a position in McFaulds Lake I still think NOT is the stock to own and will be the first to rebound when junior resource stocks start to recover. The problem is, no one knows when a recovery will occur for the base metal stocks. However one can surmise that base metal stocks should rebound in 2009 based on the fact that China has announced a massive infrastructure plan and Obama has plans to do the same. With trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure investments on the drawing boards of various countries around the world in 2009, it is a given that base metals will be in demand. Stocks like NOT with billions of dollars worth of base metals proven in the ground, has me thinking it is only a matter of time before a major steps up to the plate and makes an offer for this stock. Before anyone accuses me of pumping NOT for my own benefit, I currently hold no shares of NOT and have no plans to do so, until a bare minimum that it is trading over it's 50(MA). For those investors with a longer term horizon for investing, taking a 1/3 position in NOT at this time at current prices is probably a good plan and then adding once certain levels of price are achieved. The downside risk to NOT, appears limited to me. If an investor wanted to limit their downside risk even further taking a 1/3 position now and selling on a stop loss just under the 52 week low would be a good way to play NOT currently. There really would only be about a $.05 risk per share, if an investor employed this strategy. Other than perhaps FWR, I really see no reason to own any of the other stocks in McFaulds Lake at this time. JMHO