Crazy Like a Fox?
posted on
May 07, 2008 10:43AM
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So, here's the potential situation:
1) There are 5 wells - all have hydrocarbons (approximately 750/bpd of very light sweet crude and probably another 750/boe per day of NG.
2) One well (JB#2) has the potential to have significant NG.
3) There are more wells coming in the near future.
4) Doing the very rough math we get the following equation -
5 X 1500 = 7500/bpd X $70.00/b (premium paid for light sweet) = $525,000/d X 330 days (includes serious down time)=$173,250,000 X 35% (MEO%) = $60,637,500 divided by 188,000,000 (MEO shares) = .32 X 5 (for a conservative P/E of 5) = SP of $1.60
Now, am I crazy here? Are you crazy too? Why do so few see this potential? Am I seeing something that is not real? Did the "old" MEO so poison the well that no one wants to take a drink? It seems that there are a lot of other natural resource plays that have this sort of "potential" and their SP is a lot more reflective of the potential than 1/10 (.15 vs 1.60).
Or am I (and you) really smart to see MEO for what it may be (and what it probably is)? Despite what the "market price" of the SP tells me today, I believe in the MEO play and in my own decision-making ability That is why I have increased my position since the last NR.
Sometimes it pays big to go against the crowd. You just have to be willing to suffer the pain of being different.
- Panamax