Panamax...I think your numbers are totally realistic and potentially very low. I was very happy to see that JB#2 hit oil at the same depth that the Morgan Highpoint well is producing from. This indicates that more wells will have a high percentage of hitting what seems to be a substantial reservoir at a fairly shallow (cheap to get at) depth.
Your numbers are based on accessing that reservoir and the company has already proved it is there. It seems to be just a matter of drilling more wells.
But the elephant may lie at the 8200 ft depth in a "high pressure fracture regime". If they can figure out the geology, some directional drilling could potentially poke the packaderm in the bum and turn this little explorco into a decent sized oil and gas company almost overnight.
That is what we are all hoping. However, even without finding the elephant, we seem to be building a substantial play in Tennessee... and as I said before, just with that scenario alone, your math makes sence and Montello is indeed, undervalued.
Regards, Muffles