Conversation with a Devil’s Advocate
posted on
Jun 09, 2008 09:48AM
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On the weekend, I had a conversation with another MEO shareholder. He took a Devil’s Advocate (DA) position, to statements I had posted on this board.
I stated that since JB#3 had started production after testing at 250 bbls in 8 hrs, (NR March 27th) with no statement about gas production, so how could such a large flare result from its production, especially, after the NR May 8th which said production was 15 bbls/day. Therefore, the only logical possibility for the flares in the photos, was for it to have come from the JB#2, since they were testing the Rome formation @ 8,275’, which logs and the drilling gas detector had noted, NR May 6th.
DA: NR Mar 27: JB#3 “In excess of 250 barrels of light gravity oil flowed to surface during an eight-hour production test” Is that 251 bbls or 551 bbls? Photos show the tank full. Bill said at the AGM that the test ended when the tank was full. Therefore we actually don’t know the actual amount of time for the 250 bbls. The NR also said “with an associated high gas/oil ratio”. Therefore, there could have been a flare of this size, during the 250 bbl test. Photos from both are at night.
C: Without more details, we don’t have the facts for an accurate conclusion.
DA: We also don’t know why the JB#3 was only at 15 bbls per day. The NR, May 8th , doesn’t say deliverability declined, it simply says that 15 bbls is all that is being produced. A smaller choke could do this. Without details, we just don’t know.
DA: NR May 8th: “In less than 10 full days of production Montello has recovered in excess of 800 barrels of light sweet high gravity oil from its 6.25 inch well bore.” Again, we don’t know the actual time period of the 800 bbls point, nor the amount over 800 bbls actually produced. Most importantly, we don’t know how much the well is capable of producing in a specific time period, This also doesn’t tell us the size of choke. Too few facts for us to know.
Calgarian1: This could mean that some people could end up in the corner, on the floor, curled up an a fetal position, sucking their thumb, at the possibility that I’m wrong. For anyone who may react this way, my wife has volunteered to reveal one or two other shortcomings of mine. Really !!., She said I have some ! But then, I could be right.
So, in the interest of promoting a full discussion of the facts, here’s the latest and best I can offer.
Until the next NR, we’ll have to wait for definitive answers to these and so many other questions.