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Message: Justice Delayed

Justice Delayed

posted on Jun 13, 2006 09:13PM
The Scheduling Order timetable is a major disappointment in my opinion. So much for the ‘rocket docket’. It is what it is, unfortunately. What’s done is done. IMHO, this news is very bearish for the stock. Though we now know a marker has been established by the court, a lot can happen in a year with the J3, also a lot of stalling, feints, bluffing, may also happen. I don’t necessarily buy into the supposition that everyday we wait, the more the price goes up.

Outside settlements have minimal direct influence on the ultimate monetary award from the J3 IMHO. Assuming the J3 is rationale and sees the futility of going to trial, then it is logical to assume we are only talking about the actual award itself, and how much $$ it is going to settle, under what terms. Given the size of the expected award from the J3 speculated by many here and probably the Street, and the likelihood (based on public information), the award will be delayed into 2007, it will require a lot more licensees (Read: significant dollars) than expected, before the timetable was announced to keep the trajectory building. Otherwise, the MM’s will keep us here in the $.80 - $2.0 spread. Too much uncertainty!

The Street is having a very difficult time evaluating the current business model based on such a short history. Though every signing further strengthens the validity of the model, it is impossible to forecast quarter over quarter.

Given where we were, the rise since the end of January has been spectacular. However, the momentum has significantly slowed the last few months and the price has languished. I believe TPL/PTSC mgmt are acting in concert to support the current price as best they can, but they are helpless while in OTCBB land. The idea was raised earlier about the feasibility of PTSC buying a firm already on NASDAQ as a way to escape the clutches of the MM’s. IMHO, that is a definite possibility, and Turley may provide guidance. In the meantime, baring a J3 settlement, we will sit on the launch pad for sometime with the MM`s in control of the pumps.

Virt

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