posted on
May 16, 2007 01:47AM
Hi Ron,
I'm a german shareholder and like reading agoracom, because it's far better than what we have here in Germany and I appreciate your thoughts and comments, but regarding the warrant/shareselling/accumulation-thing
we should just take the facts as they are:
1) huge warrants reduction
2) increase of O/S
3) repeating sell/buy patterns for more than a year now
4) shareprice decline independent from improving numbers of Patriot
5) vague information politcs by Patriot
Let's look, who was buying Patriot at which prices:
- before 2006 the "real longs" with prices between 0,05 and 0,15
- until the middle of 2006 with prices between 0,30 and 2,- (ouch, I started here...)
- after Mr. Pohl's communication "attack" in September/October 2006 with prices between 0,70 and 1,20
And of course the first two of these groups bought after good news came out, because of trust, because of averaging down etc.
BUT: After the numbers of year 2005/2006 came out, I suspect normal retail shareholders got cautious with Patriot, because everybody was recognizing there was a pattern - and most frustrating: the shareprice tanked from 1,- $ to 0,90 to 0,80 to 0,70 and to 0,60 - everybody thought this to be the base and now we are nearly at 0,50.
My conclusion: "Normal" shareholders were full of shares (at whatever price level), new investors weren't interested anymore because of the strange trading pattern and since Feb 2007 because of the PUBPAT request, which seemed to be a dangerous threat.
And everybody here (and in Germany, too) blamed Hawk, Dutton & Co. for doing a bad job.
That's dead wrong.
I'm in the communications business for nearly twenty years now - and I can tell you one thing: we are service provider - if a client wants a service, he gets it, if not, we don't move one finger. I could imagine that the communications concept (the way the company communicated with us) was possibly made by Hawk & Co. - but the typical communications efforts will not start, before all the ducks are in a row...
Coming back to the sold shares - who bought them?
As I say, not the little shareholders (not in these amounts) and the big investor guys aren't allowed to buy an OTC-Pennystock - but someone bought tens of millions of shares since last year, this is for sure.
My take is we are in a change mode: Patriot needed Swartz for many
years to survive, now Patriot needs an industrial partner to develop and bring its and its JV's technologies to market. It could be Sony, could be...whatever...i really don't have a clue, but I did a lot of jobs for technology companies, for example 3com:
Great people, great inventors, great products, but bad strategy, how to market it and even worse strategy how to distribute it through the different sales channels; when we started doing business with them in 1996 3Com looked at Cisco as dumb and only big, not recognizing, they had the channels in their hand - and look where Cisco is today and who is 3Com...in short:
Patriot needs an industry partner, not a financial partner and this is how I see a transition from Swartz/Lincoln to a new entity.
Another important point, why Patriot needs a long term partner, is the planned increase of shareprice, we all are waiting/hoping for and Patriot as well in order to go to NASDAQ:
There will be about 400mio shares outstanding at the end of May, the more of these shares are in strong hands, the better the chance the shareprice can climb over 3,- $ (the limit to step away from the OTC) - just imagine, how many people would sell on the way to 3,- $ and suddenly the market would be floated by tens of millions of shares - but not enough confident and STRONG buyers (be aware that institutionals still aren't allowed to buy Patriot as long as they are at the OTC).
I assume, the question for Pohl, Swartz & Co. was, how to get the shareprice over 3,- $ (or 5,-$?) with 400mio oustanding shares.
So to come to an end: My guess is, Patriot is not going for the typical OTC-investor with his "quick-get-rich-scheme", thus I would recommend my client (if I was Hawk) NOT to communicate more than necessary - this will IMHO change drastically, when we are heading to a new exchange.
Sorry for this long post, I hope it's not too confusing, you understand my german english and of course all was and is IMHO.
GL from Europe!