Accumulator -Does it really matter?
posted on
May 16, 2007 08:42AM
First, thanks to Fut for mentioning something I've hit on a few times, but in a more subtle way (e.g., "assuming accumulation is beyond retail"). 7,000 new shareholders, plus incumbant shareholders adding as possible depending on their level of "faith". This alone could easily offset the controlled dumping by S&L.
And, though I still don't buy the "one big accumulator" theory, IF it is going on, SO WHAT? If anything, it's a good thing as it permits S&L to dump more, faster. Good for us.
So is there some perceived threat here? Take-over? Seems rather impossible when considering the language of the agreement between PTSC and TPL. Would PTSC want to be bought out? They do have some other things going on, with more to come, and the MMP is their financier. Would TPL want to be bought out? They definitely have other things going on and, like PTSC, the MMP is their financier.
Would an entity interested in doing the buy out of both PTSC and TPL (to capture the MMP) want anything to do with Holocom, or Intelesys?
Is a hostile take-over possible (with TPL being a private entity)? I don't think so.
So I conclude that, though, again, I don't buy the accumulator theory, that IT REALLY DOESN'T MATTER. Let someone buy up a bunch of shares - just like we have - on a large scale. I can see nothing more bullish than that....
I don't see a threat here, at all.
BTW, for those thinking along the lines of some massive buy-out to capture the MMP, IMO the MMP could be captured without having to buy out PTSC and TPL. All the buyer would have to do is offer PTSC and TPL HUGE money for EXCLUSIVE rights to the MMP.
PTSC and TPL stay intact as entities and get the big money for the MMP (perhaps with some elaborate royalty deal for recurring revenue). Existing licensees unaffected. The EXCLUSIVE license grants authority to the buying entity to sub-license on a non-exclusive basis. The buying entity would in essence just take over Alliacense.
Now if there is intent to tie the accumualtor theory with some theory about a take-over of PTSC and TPL, the above scenario would be the more logical approach IMO.
So, now, why is there so much excitement about the accumulator theory? Unless there is some threat there, who cares? Would the accumulator have a greater ability to manipulate than S&L? Than the MMs?
But I KNOW nuttin'!
SGE