I thought I'd introduce a weekend topic about something we're probably all thinking about, but not posting about.  The settlements I'm bringing up are NOT settlements with the Js/ARM necessarily, but those supposed 80+ infringers that have visited "the table".

One would reasonably think that, sibsequent to an "overwhelming" victory at the Markman, settlements from companies not engaged in the litigation would have come.  So what's the hold up? 

Could it be that the entire legal staff of TPL, Alliacense, Townsend & Townsend, and the Leckrones themselves are all "scrutinizing" that one worrisome phrase from the Markman?  Seems like overkill....

While I could believe that TPL and T&T are involved in the scrutiny, and that the Leckrones are handling any settlement negotiations with the Js/ARM (as I believe Ron suggested), it seems that Alliacense would be free to perform the service that I think they are responsible for - negotiations with other (the 80+) infringers.

Well, it's coming up on 2 months since the last settlement was announced.  What could possibly be holding things up? 

Could it be that these infringers are still holding out for a "result" in the litigation, even after the announced "overwhelming" success in the Markman?  Seems a bit of a stretch.... It seems that from their prospective, the Markman result coupled with the 19 high profile licensees to date should be pretty convincing.

Could it be that Alliacense is holding back?  Why would they do that?  It seems the obvious answer is that they are holding back because they are convinced that they can negotiate a much higher settlement amount by waiting.

But waiting for what?  The actual trial, and then the subsequent damages determination?  All that could easily take 6 months - 9 months, possibly a year.  While PTSC is sitting on a lot of cash and has a minimal burn rate, TPL with its TeleSys projects must have a huge burn rate.  Yea, they're bringing in a little money, but probably not near enough.

So what does all of this mean?

The only logical conclusion I can fathom is that there is an opinion, likely Leckrone's opinion (as herd master), that something is going to happen with the Js, and possibly even ARM, soon.  How soon?  Imminent?  Maybe.  But maybe he's thinking that a settlement(s) will come out of the mediation, which is scheduled to be completed within the next 45 days or so.

So why settle with anyone else now when, by waiting no more than 45 days, the settlement amounts with "others" could possibly be doubled?

This is what I think is going on.

Again, 80+ at the table as of the AMS, and two months since the settlement with Nokia. 80 at the table, and nobody's jumping in?  It has to be our side pressing for bigger dollars, knowing that with a settlement for big bucks from a J or ARM will make these seeming bigger buck demands look like a bargain.

And what if we see a settlement or two from these "other" infringers?  The above holds as a "psychology", the settlement will be bigger than the "average" past settlement (like X2), and TPL will have some more operating money.

Thus, I see the lack of 80 recent settlements, or 40, or 20, or 10, as something that bodes very well for our perceived circumstance with the Js/ARM.  Leckrone is making the ultimate decisions, and he is definitely "in the KNOW".  And think of this - if HE has any doubts, the settlements from "others" would be flying through. And by "doubts", I mean not only our prospects in a trial, but also our prospects for something(s) happening with the Js/ARM soon.

All JMHO, and I KNOW Nuttin', and all his ignorant friends.

SGE