B-Lunist--RonRandall questions
posted on
Oct 09, 2007 07:46AM
Let me try to help you out in your quest for info.
You ask: "Do you really think a settlement or even a judgement will be the end to all patent lawsuits? I doubt that is likely."
It all depends on what the settlement is, or what the judgment is. If there is a settlement for very large dollars (over $50M x 3), I doubt others would be too anxious to fight. Think of how much the Js have probably spent to date in this fight, and how much more they are likely to spend if we go to trail. If they settle, that money was essentially flushed. As for a trial, again, more legal expense, and if our team wins hands down with large damages, possibly tripled and with a possible injunction, what is their ultimate cost? Sure, they could appeal if they still thought they had a leg to stand on. But if, in trial, they are cut off at the knees, an appeal may not even be granted. Others, again, will be looking at the result and the likely legal expense. Is it worth it? Risk/reward. So if things go strongly "our way", I seriously doubt others will pursue the litigation route. Do you honestly believe others would be able to come up with more/better "fighting material" than the Js have managed to come up with?
"I still don't understand why the PE is so low. It's that simple."
I too have difficulty with the low P/E multiple. But I'm certain that it has to do with perceived risk associated with the instant litigation. If we lose, completely, we don't have much to work with (though it is $20M+ cash plus other assets - still enough for PTSC to be a viable company and to potentially grow). Another influence is the lack of a reliable revenue stream, and thus the lack of a reliable basis for P/E expectations. But think of this: the average P/E multiple in our industry is about 40; IF we get a few large settlements out of the instant litigation and get ourselves a reliable revenue stream (even if it is only based on interest income from the settlement money) our revenue number will be huge, and our rightful P/E multiple may be twice the average. Do the math.
"To me, the shareprice IS the most important thing."
Okay, look only at the PPS. Why buy? But look at the moves the company has taken to remove the warrant overhang, stop dividends, pursue acquisitions (Holocom) with an eye for more, the eyes that are looking for more, and, BTW, 24 major company licencees to date. You want to ignore all of that and stare at the PPS? Why invest here? You have to look at the whole picture and the prospects for the future based on that entire picture. Then you have to decide whether you have any confidence in the patents, in TPL, and in PTSC management. And that's the bottom line.
"Aren't you even a little curiuos about why some people think the price is fair or too high? If you didn't want to read other opinions or see other viewpoints, why would you read any message board?"
Apparently the market fells the PPS is "fair" (sorry to state the obvious), for reasons expressed above. As for over-priced, THE ONLY REASONS YOU"LL SEE POSTED ARE BASED ON THE DISTANT PAST. I, for one (along with most others here) feel the past is largely irrelevant. It would be like looking at Apple based on their pre-IPod circumstance and basing decisions on that (or the similar timeframe before Steve Jobs returned and got Billy to loan him half a billion). What does it have to do with TODAY, or the FUTURE? Very little IMO. What I find interesting is that the naysayers rarely, if ever, suggest bad things will happen based on anything other than the distant past. Which is kind of weird, if you think about it. You will almost never see a post saying "what if we lose in court?". That speculation is absent, and you have to wonder why. And, actually, THAT would be an interesting discussion. But it would be based in absolute negativity. But, that bold "WHY?". To me, it shines a little light on the motives for the "distant past" posts.
"Aren't you even a little curiuos about why some people think the price is fair or too high?"
We do see posts about why the current PPS is fair. Overpriced? Rarely seen, if ever. We're open to it (at least I am). Absent. Why? Probably because there is no solid basis for that conclusion, at least not one that couldn't be easily argued down (so resort to the distant past - like it still matters).
"....how many people are in volatile stocks like PTSC "long term"?"
Probably about 80% of the people here (and in EDIG). There are a few flippers/traders, but they say they always maintain a core position. What does that tell you? And we discuss each event in great detail because it matters with regard to our future, not because we intend to trade the event. Staying on top of each event is a form of risk mitigation - if you have a good feel for where we're at, you should have a good feel for the level of risk you're enduring.
"How so? No more warrants and options outstanding? Then where are the shares coming from that are being sold under $1?"
Here you do need to look at the recent past (18 months). News with virtually no PPS movement, primarily (IMO) due to S&L selling shares so they could convert warrants. With those warrants gone, there is a lot less incentive for S&L to sell. It's that simple. Also, many astute investors won't invest in a stock with warrant overhang. So who's selling? People who need the cash, see other opportunities to pursue, have fear about the litigation, or bought at 4 cents and choose to take their fat return. Now ask who's buying, and why.
"I've heard that talk about acquiring small companies, any idea what type company, and how soon?"
Well, we've already got one, and it's making money. Turley has advised that we'll hear more before the end of the year (like maybe at the shareholder's meeting later this month). Is that soon enough for you?
"....could you give me some idea of what the dissenting opinions are now, and what they were 6 months ago, and 1 year ago, .... etc. as far back as you go?"
As expressed above, virtually all the "dissenting" opinions are based on decisions made by the company YEARS AGO. Decisions that will likely not need to be made again (e.g., where do we get the money to keep the lights on?).
Hope this helps.
All JMHOs,
SGE