posted on
Oct 10, 2007 02:26PM
Mosaic ImmunoEngineering is a nanotechnology-based immunotherapy company developing therapeutics and vaccines to positively impact the lives of patients and their families.
Message: Pattern continues....
First, there were 485 companies put on notice, not 300.
Second (and this indicates where your NOT thinking and trying to deceive), using your example (using the 300 X the low-ball $5M numbers), PTSC gets $700M. I'm not going go to the trouble of forecasting how fast/how many licensees per year, but just use the simple number: $700 - your number.
Now take your next brilliant statement:
"That will be less than $2 per share cash. Remember - that is the all time revenue. I have seen people applying multiple to this which is wrong. Multiples are applied to EXPECTED earnings, assuming they are recurring. We already factored that into a/c."
Okay, back to $700M. Simply invest it, with a probable return of at least 10% per annum. That's $70M a year, with very low OH.
Do the numbers, and apply an appropriate P/E multiple for a fixed, known, absolute $70M/year (ignore the compounding). Industry average P/E is about 40, but with the risk associated with this industry (i.e., what should it be with zero risk?).
Again, do it the simple way. $70M times the industry average P/E of 40.
70M / 400M = .175 EPS
.175 X 40 = $7/share.
If you're going to criticize others for using wrong numbers/processes, you might want to make sure YOUR numbers/processes make some sense. Using your approach assumes PTSC would take the $700M cash and have a big, green-flame BBQ. Charred cash, anyone?
Now throw in the correct number of known licensing candidates (add 50%), escalating license fees (double it, at least), the compounding of invested cash received, and an appropriate P/E where the ROI is with zero risk (100?).
$7 X 1.5 = $10.50 (adds the 50% more licensees)
$10.50 X 2 = $21. (doubles the license fees)
$21 X 2.5 = $52.50/share (increasing the P/E from 40 to 100)
If you're going to go throw silly numbers around, you should expect this kind of response.
This I KNOW!
SGE
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