Re: The dip...SGE - PXP
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 27, 2007 09:08AM
Actually, I think you made your point. The PPS could explode with the right news. It'll go up, and then it will pull back some, but will sustain at much higher levels.
Some of us base our somewhat goofy predictions on P/E multiples. Our current P/E is ten, in any industry where the average is 39. And that's the average. With success to the tune of what we could see in TX, are we average? Virtually no risk in receiving millions from each of the prospective 450+ infringers. What should our P/E be?
Some argue no sustained revenues. The company has planned to address that. But no sustained revenues? 450+ infringers, years to get 'em all (most), and no sustained revenues? Oh, but they are not predictable. IMO, those revenues would be at least as predictable as with the selling of any "product".
Some argue Market Cap. I'm sorry, but that doesn't hold much water with me. What was PTSC's market cap when we went to $7? Oh, but this isn't 1999/2000 any more. Okay, but what was our market cap when we went to $2.25? And how much farther could we have gone without S&L selling into that pop? Would it have sustained? No. But our base would form, and probably more based on P/E in recognition of our potential - purely from the MMP. And again, what would be a rightful P/E? The average? Twice the average? More?
Here again I have to say how pleased I am about the recent "caption" change - getting "Patriot Scientific" in there for all to see. IF we prevail in TX in a big way, that will be NEWS. I suspect it will be BIG news. We won't be depending on Hawk or Hoffman or anyone else to get the word out. There will be headlines, I suspect, assuming the news world recognizes that this isn't just about one infringement case, or three, but ultimately it's about hundreds of infringement cases.
This little novel may come across as a pure pump, but that's not my intent. This is the reality as I see it - or at least the real potential. Notice I haven't assigned any numbers to anything other than real numbers (P/Es, probable infringers).
I suspect that the above is what many here are really thinking/dreaming about, hence all the anxiousness these days. Perhaps I've gone into a little more depth in the thought process, with a lot more optimism in the possibilities. But can anyone effectively argue these possibilities? When the traders see the volume spike, how far could they take us before the retrace? Especially if S&L back off and just go along for the ride. Am I really exagerating the potential?
Next question: When? Next week? I'm hoping Ward's ruling comes real soon, and that the players act on it immediately. They may drag their feet, but if we prevail in the ACP ruling and file a MSJ (based on the Markman results), that should put a fire under 'em. In thinking strategy, I believe there would be no impediment to our team filing immediately, because with the ACP ruling in hand we may no longer be concerned with staying in the good graces of the court (playing the mediation game per the "rules"). And I suspect the court would be pleased with quick action to force settlement. Is this an exageration of the potential as well?
Maybe, 'cuz I KNOW nuttin'!
But I truly believe that we may be on the very verge of something....
Ex-cell-ent!
SGE