I concur with all your points and definitely my numbers fall in the SWAG category, and maybe even in just the WAG category, lol.

However, as to the issue of addtional infringing products being factored in, I think by virtue of the fact that TPL/PTSC has settled on ONE-TIME payments in lieu of ongoing royalty payments tends to mitigate the effect of addtional products being included. Again from the WAG/SWAG school, I get the sense that they have developed some way of reverse engineering the product offering of a subject company, figuring out what products infringe, assigning some value to that based on total product revenue, and agreeing to some multiple of that number as a license fee.  Whether the company sold 10% more or less of that number in actuality or will continue to sell more or less of them in the future seems to be ruled out by the lack of ongoing recurring payments, IMO.