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Message: Simple Logic

Simple Logic

posted on Nov 29, 2007 11:13AM

If this thing were by chance to go to trial, wouldn't the fact that Toshiba & NEC seeking to invalidate the patents essentially confirm that they infringe on these patents?!  Seems like that if you weren't guilty of infringement, you certainly would have no reason to invalidate a patent that has nothing to do with your products.

Combine that reasoning with the fact that the other NEC entities other than NEC Electronics America have already licensed the portfolio, and NEC as an entity has pretty much admitted guilt and can only be working on the value of their guiltiness.

Gotta believe settlement issues hinge only on how much of a discount TPL/PTSC is willing to give them for avoiding trial.  The J's really HAVE to settle, otherwise they'll have to pay more.  The only wildcard in this would be if the USPTO decisions were to happen prior to trial completion.  Even then, it seems that the precedent is that the Court overrules the USPTO as it is more detailed in its analysis, so based on the Markman Ruling, the two patents being contested are at least 75/25 in favor of TPL/PTSC winning in court.  With odds clearly stacked against them, the J's will bluff as long as they can, but I have no doubt they'll settle before trial.

With this in mind, I think TPL will push and bluff that they're willing to go to trial and wait on more money later than less money now.  But at the end of the day, I believe they will want to settle to get this behind them & open the gates to the rest of the 485 companies, and they'll want to do so sooner than later, even at the expense of tens of millions.  I say this as there is opportunity cost in dragging this out, simply for a bit more cash from a limited source of 3 companies and offset by legal fees and delayed payments from other companies. 

All that being said, if you're a J3 lurker here,  you better realize that you're gonna pay now or later, so don't tick TPL/PTSC off to the point where they exact EVERY cent from you they can.  Accept the more than gracious offer their giving you of 80 cents on the dollar!  If you don't beleive I mean business, just look at my photo!

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