WHY?
posted on
Jan 17, 2008 01:42PM
The shareprice development is depressing and unbelievable and my PTSC-account is deep red with more than 50% loss, but while I have no other choice than waiting this out, I try to analyze and interpret the current situation:
As the warrant-buyback agreement with Swartz was published last year and the SP dropped in the 50ies and 40ies, I pointed out that this could be with the intent of PTSC in order to pay as little as possible for the warrants. I'm sure, they saved nearly a million...
The same is happening now: Patriot seems not to be interested to support the shareprice (I even suspect, they are not only dong nothing, but acting behind th scenes...we are still at the OTC, where manipulation is normal business...) - so IMHO there are three reasons to explain this:
1. BoD has no clue and no control of the company
I find it hard to support this theory, because so far the company seemed to consequently work their plan step by step (getting rid of historic burdens and preparing for the future, though most of you don't agree with the "speed" of their actions).
On the other hand: Since nearly two years of "strange communications behaviour" by Patriot the incredible amount of WAG-theories by us shareholders could be a sign, that PTSC does not have one clue...
2. BoD wants to get rid of the "penny"-investors and to make it "OTC-dead"
I stated this before, if I would be CEO and planned to leave the OTC, I would try to get rid of ALL investors, who bought in the pennys-range. The first shareholder, who has to leave the boat is Swartz (with a golden handshake...), the next are the normal investors, who bought in under a dime. How do I manage they are selling? No communication, rumours, shareprice erosion, frustration, fear - the PTSC-future is a blackbox, because noone knows, what the company is actually doing and where it is heading to.
"OTC-dead": No normal OTC-investor would touch Patriot after the development of the last two years - IMO exactly, what PTSC wants.
3. BoD MUST reduce the number of Outstanding Shares
IF I'm to believe, Patriot is reducing Dutton's negative list, the first point = O/S to high, has to be solved in the next months.
Reverse Split? Ouch, better not.
Share-buyback by Patriot? Well, if the market gets to know, PTSC will buy back 100mio shares, the market would know, how much money PTSC received from the J3 and the price would rise = PTSC would get less shares for the money.
Share-buyback by "someone else" for an account of PTSC? I mentioned this WAG some weeks ago, but it's still the only reasonable AND positive speculation I can imagine, why it could be in the interest for Patriot NOT to support the share price.
The only question for us is:
Can we stand this "game"? How many investors (who had held PTSC for years) sold last summer, because they lost faith after the sp tanking after the Markman Hearing, an event which was supposed to be a positive watershed event? How many will sell in the next three months, if nothing happens until April, because of frustration, fear etc.? Worse: What will happen with the shareprice, when the next 10Q will be as "rich of explanations" like the last one was? Those, who are getting afraid of this possibility, might think about selling.
And I'm suspecting, this is exactly, what Patriot is waiting for...
I know, this all sounds not really positive, but I'm not believing one second, that Patriot cares for its current shareholders. They might take care, if they changed to the NASDAQ (if they manage to do so...), but NOT NOW = as long as they are at the OTC.
Sorry for this long post...all IMHO and just another WAG - good night from Germany