Blunist,
1st, I want to say I think that your way of looking at a stock without emotion is very noteworthy, especially for most here.
However, I disagree in that I think PPS IS everything. For my gameplaying any drop of %10 - 20 % is a sell at aloss. That prevents from getting really underwater and being thrown into the hope/pray mode. I know from experience that feeling. And it is one I do not need to repeat.
It also allows for keeping powder dry for if/when the price swing does change. The other thing I will say is that I think it makes no sense to buy on the way down. The only place you hear about "averaging down" is from neophytes on stock chat boards.
Again in MY game, I would much prefer to average up. It is proof that the issue is going the right way, and the # 1 priority of capital preservationis maintained.
You seem to get a lot of grief from other longs. IMO your ideas on investing without emotion can go a long way around here. I just don't agree with your outlook at this point in time. If the share price turns around and we see several days of good appreciation, or there is more transparency evident to their future financial direction, then I will be back in. The difference in 5, 10, or 20% is not that great if it is going up to where people think it SHOULD be. However buying on the way down can lead to a devestating loss if it does not turn around. This loss of over %50 since the day of the Tejas settlement will require an appreciation of over %100 just to get back there. In my book %100 is a grand slam, and those are rare.
Good luck
(I) can't wait