Interesting, per Swartz, "... a loss and we could  go to 15 cents, a win might bring $1.50 to $4.00."

Being too literal we might conclude:

Using the $4.00 mark, the SP is 90% below his win.

Using the $1.50 mark, the SP is 72% below his win. 

So we're between 72% and 90% from a Swartz SP win signal.

But then Swartz didn't mention what would happen if we settled without releasing any details. I wonder what his expectations would have been for that case.