First, May, and Swartz's say. No matter what agreement you look at, if an M/A is an all cash deal and all members of the BoD agree, Swartz has no say. I would think an acquisition would be an all cash deal. And I would think that all BoD members would agree. The Swartz issue is thus moot, IMO, in this regard.
April. Yup, it's too bad that so much hinges on this one (multi-facetted) event, but that is when the "cone of silence" will be lifted. As for market reaction, perhaps there's some question there. But IMO, this event will be different than all the licensing agreements and other news bits of the past. We think we KNOW what has caused the problems of the past - Swartz selling into news, or more, selling into volume.
We do KNOW that Swartz has continued to sell (at least through year end) at an accelerated pace. We've played with the numbers to find that, with a contiinue velocity of selling, Swartz will be nearly out of shares by 10 April.
I consider Swartz's action/inaction to be a main driver for what happens. If the 10Q numbers are good, watch the volume. The volume could chew through whatever amount of shares Swartz has left - resistance gone and we can fly. On the other hand, Swartz could decide to hold whatever he has left - and again, resistance gone and we can fly. Either way, the Swartz influence may be much less of an issue this time around. And that is what I think will make April different from anything we've seen in a very long time.
This is one year where I think a whole lot of people will be wishing me a Happy Birthday. Yup, it's April 9th. And if I'm happy, we'll all be happy!
JMHOs, and I KNOW nuttin'!
SGE