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Message: Three Years - $305M in license fees

Three Years - $305M in license fees

posted on Feb 26, 2008 01:33PM

If the spreadsheet I've been using represents anything close to reality for Q3 (hopefully I'm conservative), then the MMP will have brought in over $305M in three years (AMD signed on 2/22/05).

 

  • Calendar Year 2005  brought in $23.05M in license fees
  • Calendar Year 2006  brought in $108.87M in license fees
  • Calendar Year 2007  will have brought in $159.03M in license fees based on my estimated figures and
  • Calendar Year 2008 has brought in $14.56M in license fees in just under 2 months based on my estimated figures

 

While PTSC only gets a little less than half of that, it still represents nearly $140M in consistently increasing revenues to PTSC.  At some point you gotta believe the market will have to recognize this as a recurring scenario, even at a discounted rate.  If you take $159.03 and subtract 10% for expenses that leaves $143.13M to be split between TPL & PTSC.  That gives PTSC $71.56M in revenues for calendar year 2007.  Subtract a liberal 40% of that for taxes and G&A expenses, and PTSC's net profit would be $42.9M for calendar year 2007.

 

I would think that the market has to reflect, considering the consistent increase over 3 years, that this is no fluke and should be considered reliable, recurring income to some extent.  Even if they want to discount the numbers by 50% arguing that it's not technically recurring, that still leaves PTSC with $21.5M in PROFIT in calendar year 2007, with no definitive reason to expect that diminishing this year or next.   Take a very modest P/E of 10, and even at this severly discounted analysis, would make the price per share 55 cents.  In reality, it seems like we should easily be double that under any relatively normal analysis.

 

I would hope that the Q3 numbers will confirm this trend and hopefully at an even better rate than I show, and with that the market can finally accept what has been happening over the last 3 years and reflect so in the share price.  When you look at these numbers, it truly doesn't make sense that we trade where we do.  PTSC could have just returned all revenues from the last 3 years to the shareholders and gotten us about the same return as the share price is currently refleting.  Come on now MM's, Traders, and S&L.  Let's get this train a rollin'!

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