Re: My take on all this (IMO)..B-Lunist
posted on
Mar 02, 2008 09:21AM
"And, I do not believe that TPL is planning a takeover."
I don't believe they are either. Just do the math, and seriously, you do the math, cause you have seen mine. Using Lambert's #'s, (going from memory), we have signed roughly 10% of infringers (40/400), and projecting a total license revenue to date of about $300M (rounding both #'s to simplify).
That means there is still $2,700,000,000, or $2.7Bil out there for the taking based on historical license rates, which should go up, but for this exercise are remaining static for simplicity. This means Patriot's take is $1.35 Bil before expense and taxes. Using a simple 40% tax rate, forget expense, the take home would be $810M.
Why would TPL want to buy out Patriot today for say $2/share and pay close to $800M, to get $810M? With the risk that still exists, i.e. patent reform, USPTO reexams, etc, why would TPL even want to pay $1/share or $400M today for $810M over the next several years? I just don't see it, but I could be wrong, and probably am.
IMO, and this is purely speculation with no basis behind it, the more likely scenario is that Patriot has found a company to merge with, or possibly merge with, or a short list of possible companies to merge with, and it was made known or obvious to Turley that he would NOT be the CEO once a merger took place. If this is the case, than I could see why we brought in a CEO on a temporary basis with M/A experience and no issues with making the merger work, getting incentivized to make it work, and than move on. Seen it before. If this is the case than I can also see why Turley would be upset and leave. Turley wanted to run the company, not merge and step aside. I don't know if the above scenario is in play, but IMO it is just as likely as any of the gloom and doom I am seeing on this board by those who were simply in love with Turley.
No offense meant to anyone on this board, but IMO Turley was NOT a CEO. I said it in 2006, I said it when we made him CEO, and I am saying it now that he has left. I liked the guy, he possibly would have made a good CTO, but a CEO he was NOT! That is my opinion and I am sticking to it. I admit, the timing of all of this sucks, and causes some concern. I have a lot of money in this stock, and I don't really want to lose it, but when you look at what we have there are still some very positive things happening, or at least I believe are happening. I believe in the value of the MMP. I believe that April's 3rd quarter #'s alone will be much better than any 10K (4 quarters) Patriot has ever reported. I also believe that the new guy has the background to make something happen on the M/A front, which is what i believe we need. IMO all 3 of my beliefs are very positive. I don't know what tomorrow morning will bring SP wise, but I am looking 6 months out, not one day.
Good luck to you, me, us, and all longs.