A short novel for SGE1
posted on
Mar 13, 2008 04:50PM
Hi SGE1,
I appreciate your novels & thoughts, and would like to comment your posts regarding your opinion, the Re-Exams or M&A activity would NOT be key for a rise in the sp, but the money could (or would).
With a normal company (and maybe a normal world...;-)) I would certainly agree to 100%, but not with PTSC and the experience of the last 26 months:
With more than $200 mio licence fees for the MMP paid by 43 big and well-know companies, there should be no doubt, that the huge "rest" of 500 or more companies will have to pay a huge amount of $$$ in the next years. Thus it should not be question, IF PTSC gets much money, but if it gets very much or more than very much money. Thus the shareprice should have reflected this from the beginning of the two signings by HP and Fujitsu, worth $ 50mio.
And the shareprice did, what he ought to do - in the first weeks and months: he rose in a great way only because of the money received and the money to be received... - today we "know" ("assume" for those, who ask for facts and proofs), that it was part of a manipulated game/plan/call it, what you want it (a game, which hopefully will end very soon).
We all had to accept, that new licensees = more money, were NOT the guarantee for an increasing sp - the relation between receiving more money and a higher sp vanished.
MONEY WAS NOT THE KEY ANYMORE.
IMO there is no doubt, that this happened because of manipulation, hopefully for a "good" reason = to get rid of PTSC's burden of its history, but nevertheless it was and IS manipulation and it’s not ready yet, as we can see since the settlement of Dec 18th with more licensees than ever.
Thus it’s very simple:
IF „all the ducks are in a row“, if manipulation stops, if the market can react in a free way, THEN money will play the main role and the relation between revenue, earnings and shareprice will be in "harmony, no matter if the USPTO has finished its work or PTSC bought Apple...
But as long as „THEY are not ready“, someone will tell us, that the open Re-Exams and the lack of M&A and the control by TPL and Mr. Pohl’s daughter of his grand nephew etc. are responsible for the uncertainty and thus the low shareprice.
BTW, I wouldn't be surprised to see less signings towards April 9th and beyond, because of this reason - my gut tells me, PTSC has a different time-line...
All IMHO and now good night to all!