I just returned from a multi-week trip to the Suwannee, Withlacoochee, and Waccissa Springs in northern Florida. Extrodinary waters for kayaking, relaxing, and getting your head straight.

My pleasant surprise on returning was seeing that PTSC scored 16 licenses in the Dec-Jan Quarter. That met the high end of my last posted estimate of 13 to 16.

With a clearer head, which I attribute to the Florida rivers, swamps, wildlife, friendly kayakers, and Steven Foster (Way down upon the …)  I see PTSC more conservatively.  EPS, more than ever, seems to be the only thing that really matters.

My lowest estimates for this Q are based on the previous 4 Qs results, which were:

• average net income per license = $1.44M
• average EPS per license = .004

So my lowest estimates for this past Q based on 16 licenses are:

• 16 x $1.44M = $23M Net Income
• 16 x .004 = 06 cents EPS
• TTM EPS = 06 + 01 -01 + 03 = 9 cents
• With a P/E of 8 the SP would = 8 x 9 = 72 cents

We had 13 weeks in the Dec-Feb Q and 16 licenses, or 1.23 licenses per week. If we hold that rate and the historical average EPS per license our TTM EPS will grow successively:

from 9 cents (my estimate above)  =>  Sp = 72 cents

to 14 cents  =>  SP = $1.26

then 21 cents  => SP = $1.89

then 24 cents  => SP = $2.16

I think these are worst case estimates based on business-as-usual and the historical average EPS per license. I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed and eaten by a gator.

PS: I can confrim that the old folks are not at home. They're kayaking the Suwannee - which Steven Foster misspelled.