While we usually agree, I have to side with theCleanser on this one.
Realistic? As I've posted before, these calcualtions are no where near "realistic". License fees stayed static? No increase over time, and more importantly, after very positive events? The Js paid the old average? A 75% discount?
Are any of these thoughts "realistic"? While I appreciate your concern about the possibility of "pumping" if realism is applied, citing a mega-turbo-ultra-conservative number could be perceived as the opposite of pumping.
I again suggest that those calculations are only useful for a "most pessimistic view" (and they are presented as "conservative"). And, by golly, they still depict a strong potential for April!
JMHOs,
SGE