17 trading days and counting! - Surprise us EARLY!
posted on
Mar 17, 2008 11:35AM
17 trading days left until April 9th. Based on the recent changes, PTSC seems to be (whether purposely or not) stirring up interest in the company that can be culminated in a killer 10q. We've seen:
What's next?! I'd love to see a 10q filing come out before the end of March, surprising the market. I've thrown out estimates based on my spreadsheet of earnings in the $30M to $40M range to PTSC for the quarter. Earnings in this range would not surprise me. Earnings 10%-25% higher wouldn't surprise me. Earnings higher than that, while not something I would rule out and in fact something I can make the argument for, WOULD surprise me in the sense that they would be out of the norm from what has been done in the past. That's not to say they would be surprising to see, just that based on the historical fees, I think the market would find them "surprising" and would react very positively to them. That's the perspective that I come to my earnings estimates from.
I think the market will "expect" what has been historically done, or slightly better (or even slightly worse), and once that is confirmed, I think we can expect to get to somewhere near the 94 cents that was acheived when the settlements were announced with steady and commensurate appreciation going forward with each license signed based on the magnitude of the licensee. But if TPL/PTSC actually pulled off something for the settlements in the range of 25% to 100% better than the historical average of license fees, than I think we can truly call that an earnings surprise from the market's perspective, and we'll see a violent reaction upwards similar to what's happened in the past in 2006. Who knows what will happen in that scenario, as I think the mo-mo players will be involved like last time, and we may hit highs that will not be sustainable, but if numbers like some have speculated on are shown it will be interesting trading in the weeks following the 10q.