The "non-communications game" ain't over yet

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gcduck

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The "non-communications game" ain't over yet

posted on Apr 09, 2008 11:44PM

As I speculated/suspected this "One-Event-concentration" on the April numbers did create frustration, when the numbers came out, thus I reiterate my opinion, that the "non-communications game" ain't over - and they KNEW it from December 18th, that it wouldn't be over in April 08.

Here my post on this topic from Feb 08:

4. What's the consequence for April?

Posted by: gcduck on February 13, 2008 06:37PM

Assuming the communication by PTSC in the last two years was "great" in order to reach their targets/plans, expecting Swartz to "lose" his approval rights at 05/31/08 in the case of an aquisition, suspecting the shareprice movement pattern we have to face since weeks has a reason (and this is not one of the public cited reasons like USPTO, uncertainty etc.) - the question is:

Why does PTSC and its communications partner Dutton several times point to the "second week of April" = release of the numbers of Q3?

Obviously for only one reason:

Everybody HAS TO HAVE a look at these numbers!!!

Hm...but...with the experience of the last two years with PTSC this puzzled me, because from a professional communications point of view I would only recommend this behaviour to my client, if he was 1,000% sure, the results he could present would be incredible outstanding. At least I would recommend this in my business world, but with PTSC things could be different again...

Please note, I'm not a basher (the intelligent ones of you might have recognized...;-)), but from an objective point of view there are TWO possibilities for this "forcing" hint to the April numbers:

1. There is something huge coming and a shareprice explosion would be compliant with the overall master/business plan.

2. There is nothing great coming in the Q3 (I don't know, how "creative" you can hide revenues in US-filings), but a further shareprice erosion because of market's and shareholder's disappointment would still be compliant with the overall master/business plan - because "things" aren't ready then (thus my mentioning of the 05/31/08 exit date for Swartz' approval rights).

I hope, you are understanding, what I'm trying to say:

In a normal situation this communications behaviour would bear a big burden for a company to make sure, that the numbers are really great, because with such high expectations there is a likely chance, the market expected MORE. To perform such a strategy would then mean, to take BOTH reactions in account: the good one AND the bad one. In the real world NO company would select this strategy, because it would be too dangerous. They would try to cool down the expectations, of course in order to excel them.

IF a company would choose to do so, it could be for the reason, that the probable "disappointment" (in the case of "not huge" numbers) would be part of their plan.

Anyway, I hope they know, what they are doing, which is preparing an explosion, but I have to admit, I somehow have a strange feeling with this "YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE APRIL NUMBERS"...maybe it's just too much mistery for my little brain...lol.