I believe PTSC may have made a very serious investment error.
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 12, 2008 02:49PM
I don't think you guys understand what has occured here. The statements being made by PTSC may not be intentionally misleading, however, I am of the opinion they are no longer valid. There is NO MARKET for ARS's. They are currently holding what is considered to be the lowest form of an ARS vehicle. The student loans mature in 30 years. The ARS market has collapsed and all companies will be forced to book those investments at a new "greatly reduced" value sometime in the near future. Because of the way PTSC's quarters run the information that is included in their Q is probably a month behind. I expect you will see many announcements coming within the next 30-60 days with public companies acknowledging that their ARS investments have been reflected to show the new market value and it will be substantially reduced. There are no investors for this stuff. The only one's who may get out of this in better shape are the one's invested in Municipal Bonds. The statement below probably sums it up best. When Patriot was getting ready to release the Q the fair market value at that time was $15 million. The problem is since that time the ARS market has basically collapsed. There will be investment banks that repurchase them from clients at a greatly reduced price. They will sit on it for the entire mutarity date which can range from a few years up to 30 or 40 from what I understand. I believe Patriot has made a very serious investment error. The only way that can be acknowledged or dismissed is for the company to speak publicly.
"Due to the frequent resetting of interest rates, the carrying value of auction rate securities approximates fair value."It did represent fair value at that time.....................
"The investments consist of student loan auction rate preferred instruments issued by various state agencies pursuant to the Federal Family Educational Loan Program (FFELP). These investments are of high credit quality and the AAA credit ratings of the investments have been reaffirmed since February 2008. These instruments are collateralized in excess of the underlying obligations, are insured by the various state educational agencies, and are guaranteed by the Department of Education as an insurer of last resort. We have the intent and the ability to hold these investments until the anticipated recovery period which we believe will be less than twelve months."
The problem with this statement is clear, you can't sell something if the market doesn't exist. The ARS they are holding is insured but they didn't plan on keeping it until full maturity of 30 years. There intention was just like everyone else's, sit on it for a while and than turn it over for auction. That is the problem, there is no auction market anymore. It has collapsed. BRIAN PLEASE CONTACT PTSC AND SEE IF THEY CAN GIVE US A CURRENT UPDATE.