Re: copy from gcduck again my thinking
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 15, 2008 11:45AM
Hi sabre, thank you very much for the compliment.
I sent forestgump an email asking him last friday, if he could tell me, what he actually meant and after understanding it, I told him, I'll write a post trying to put it in my words this weekend. But with all this "crazy chicken whining" I decided to refrain from posting here for the next time. The problem is:
I CAN'T DO IT!!!! Deep in myself I have to be part of this board...maybe hoping it won't go crazy forever...;-))
Ok, back to your question regarding the essence of forestgump's posts, here it is in a nutshell:
Based on the numbers of lambertslunatics regarding the possible license fees paid by the companies for the third quarter forestgump calculates the following:
PTSC received $11,5mio in Q3 until the end of January (as we know from RG), given the numbers of lamberts are correct assumptions, it would mean, that this smaller companies WITHOUT the J3 and WITHOUT the "february signed companies", paid a lot more than lamberts assumed or - and that is the point forest is trying to make - they paid exactly, what lamberts assumed, which would amount to about $3,5mio.
Thus the question would be: Where are the remaining $8mio coming from?
His further assumption is then to consider this $8mio as the royalty rate for January and February ($4mio for each month) - paid by the J3. And this again would sum up to $48mio in royalty rates PER YEAR only by the J3 - multiplied with seven years (until the patents are valid) equals $350mio ONLY for PTSC!
Based on this general assumption the next step is easy to follow: With about $50mio recurring revenues it shouldn't be a problem to "leverage" $200-300mio in the credit market, in order to finance an attractive M&A target. In addition PTSC has 110 mio shares (maybe more in these days and the next time...) in the treasury, which could be worth a lot, IF everything works out as described by Mr. Goerner in his shareholder letter (requirement for a change to NASDAQ is $5/share, and on the way to this price the shares can achieve "gold mine status").
I hope, I didn't miss anything - let's hope for a more level-headed atmosphere in the next weeks!
Good night from Germany