R/S vs. Share-buyback vs. Doing nothing
posted on
May 01, 2008 05:33AM
According to the current situation and the number one "Negative" for PTSC = high O/S of about 390mio shares, there are three possibilities the company can handle this issue - and I guess, ONE of the following scenarios will become real:
1. Reverse Split:
As pointed out by milestone, there IS the chance, that a R/S might work - today the circumstances do not support a step like this. But this could change inbetween the next six to nine months. If the situation stays like today, a R/S would be the worst decision IMO.
2. Share-buyback:
While the company started (at least announced it would start) the buyback of shares again, this appears to be an issue, they want to solve. Actually the sharecount they bought back, is NOT impressive and with the current money in the bank (or in the ARS) they couldn't make a real difference, even if they used all their money. I'm still a believer, that the shareprice is held down for ONE reason since December 18th, which is: someone is buying/accumulating shares...and I hope/wish/could imagine, the buying back would be part of the business resolution with the J3. This would be the perfect solution for the "high O/S problem", though I agree, it's bit of a far reach...;-)
3. Doing nothing:
IF everything works perfect (Appeal, USPTO, J3 pay millions/month, T3 pay millions/year, PTSC buys Apple for $20mio and realizes several other successful M&As etc.), the question is: How much earning does PTSC have to have in order to break the $5 barrier? And in which time? I suspect, that this could happen in the next twelve months - and given the company is evaluating the possibility of a change to NASDAQ or similar in this time frame, "Doing nothing" about the high O/S will not work. Only if they want to stay at the OTC for the next years, "Doing nothing" would be ok - but from the company's communication it seems, they are seriously planning to get away from the OTC.
Thus I see it as followed:
If fairy tales come true, PTSC can leave the O/S like it is, the shareprice grows and grows AND easily steps to NASDAQ. But because I don't believe in fairy tales (at least not in them becoming reality), I guess possibilty 1 or 2 is the choice the company has.
But if the business resolution with the J3 did not contain a "share-buyback-agreement", I guess possibility 1 is more realistic.
The consequence IMO is:
If the company and we are heading for a change to NASDAQ in the next 12-18 months, there is a high possibility, they will have to think about a R/S.
Now comes the most difficult part for some of you: I am not demanding a R/S (I don't like it from nearly every point of view), the above was IMO logically deduced from the information we have, the situation we face. Thus it's not my opinion, but an observation regarding the given facts and outspoken targets.
GLTA