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Message: Simple analysis of TPL Cash Flow

Simple analysis of TPL Cash Flow

posted on May 27, 2008 09:33AM

We know that PTSC & TPL split the MMP revenues AFTER expenses.



Based on SEC filings, we know that to date PDS has earned $219.72M in licensing revenue since the creation of P-Newco (PDS). This excludes the $23.05M that was earned prior to the unification of the patents.



Based on SEC filings, we also know that to generate those license revenues, the following expenses were incurred:



  • FY2006 - $4.49M
  • FY2007 - $12.19M
  • FY2008 (thru Q3) - $16.33M


That's a total of $33.01M in expenses over the last (almost) 3 years.



Also, subracting $33.01M from $219.72M, leaves $186.71M that TPL & PTSC split, with $93.35M going to TPL. Forgetting that they would subtract all their other expenses from this money before figuring what taxes they owe, let's assume they paid 35% tax on that already, that would leave them $60.68M in cash to their coffers.



Even though, I'm sure a good percentage of the $33M in PDS expenses went to the outside lawyers, for the sake of this analysis, lets assume all of this expense was to pay TPL staff. In order to remain as conservative as possible, let's also review only the last 2 years of expenses, when the Alliacense efforts were "ramped up", to determine the "average" carry that TPL has. Assuming that $16.33M expended in 3 quarters will equal $21.77M if extrapolated for all four quarters, and averaging the cash burn of $21.77M and $12.19M of the last 2 years, we end up with an average cash burn by TPL of $17M per year for the MMP licensing efforts.



While TPL has other business efforts that obviously have cash burn, they also have some income from those businesses to offset some of that burn. However, again to remain conservative, let's ignore that, and assume that ALL of their company expenses are funded SOLELY by MMP revenues. At this point, I have to make an assumption as to what the percentage of their total burn comes from Alliacense. While I believe it is the VAST majority of their burn, I'm going to estimate that it is only 67%. So basicallly, if Alliacense's PDS efforts cost $17M per year, ALL OF WHICH IS REIMBURSED BY PDS, then TPL has to come up with another $8.5M per year to fund the remainder of their efforts.



So in essence, in this VERY CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS, to keep TPL running, they need $25.5M per year. Considering the income to pay Alliacense comes off the top of the MMP revenues, TPL would have to come up with the other $8.5M to run their company from their portion of the MMP profits. As I've shown above, they should have at least $60M in profit after taxes already, so even if they paid $8.5M for each of the last 3 years (obviously, they DIDN'T, but assume they did), that would have only drawn down $25.5M of their $60M, leaving $34.5M still in their coffers. Let's further assume they bonused out the top guys using $10M of that $34.5M. They still would have $24.5M in cash (AFTER TAXES) to continue their efforts.



Since ALL of their MMP expenses are reimbursed off the top of the MMP license revenues, it stands to reason that TPL in fact has plenty of cash to continue operations for the next year. Unless the Leckrones have purchased a fleet of private jets, I doubt cash flow is the issue for them that others believe it is. Nor do I think waiting out the USPTO for another year would be difficult to do.

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