Re: The measured demise...questions for a chart watcher:
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 28, 2008 07:26AM
Fatwollit,
"There were a whole string of signings earlier this year despite the fact that USPTO re-exams were in progress then as now, so why have signings dried up? I don't get it either."
I contend that TPL/PTSC has zero leverage for licensing at the moment. Remember the rash of licenses sold just after to the J's settlement announcement and prior to the 10Q. TPL was using that leverage to the full extent. The 'unknown' was in their corner.
Those new licensees probably were thinking as many of us were thinking, in that the J's settlement numbers were big and this was their last chance to get in on the cheap before possibly being sued or the price of the MMP possibly increasing. (Remember the 'early bird special' verbiage.)
After the 10Q numbers came out, other infringing companies in negotiations deduced that TPL/PTSC did not want to proceed to trial for reasons that we can only speculate on. One of which has been heavily discussed here....TPL preferred validation from the USPTO over letting a jury decide the outcome???
Throw LG/Quanta in the mix and TPL's game plan may have been significantly disrupted. The 'pipeline' of would be licensees, (those companies that were in ongoing negations and for all intents and purposes were at the table ready to sign) may have been erased from the list. A new list of infringers could be in the making and if that's the case, filling the 'pipeline' will take some time.
Also, infringing companies may in fact be offering to sign but their offering may be too low for TPL to accept at this time. Thus, the waiting game (USPTO) continues. Infringers have nothing to lose at this point by waiting to licence. The cost of licensing the MMP, imo, will not increase significantly, even after validation from USPTO. (I'm not sure if the 'early bird' specials were ever valid to begin with. To me, license amounts always seemed to be all over the map anyway. There was not rhyme or reason to the amounts, all imo, corrections welcome.) Therefore, infringers wait, as we all do.
TPL/PTSC surely know more than we do about the strength of the MMP and the possibility of invalidation. If 'low ball' offerings were on the table and TPL had doubts about the validation of the MMP, then I believe we would see some paltry licenses being sold.
This is my .02 fwiw.
Regards,
PxP
PS. Did not proof read this message. I humbly ask readers to forgive grammar, typos and misspelled words and any lack of logical statements.