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Message: Double wammy

Double wammy

posted on Jun 28, 2008 09:20AM

This is not a favorable short term outlook. It is my honest opinion based on the factors I see as important.

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The overall economy and market conditions (IMO) are providing part two of the SP wammy we are seeing. I can't recall a more troubling outlook during my 40 years of investing - nationally and worldwide.

I could argue that the overall economy should have little impact on this tech stock - it's product is not dependent on discretionary demand. That is a favorable point to remember. But then we see that tech stocks in general are not showing the strength they have in the past. These factors may be lining up for a perfect storm that (IMO) only strong earnings (reported actuals) from PTSC will solve. Promises aren't enough any more - especially for PTSC given their history of promises and glowing outlooks. We've seen the SP reaction to promises and good spins - many times.

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PTSC's SP could go to $1 and more, based on actual earnings reports. How long might it take to 10Q stronger earnings? Probably more than a year. I'd expect this last completed Q to report (in August) flat earnings at best. Next 10Q (in Nov), with zero license sales 1/3 into this Q, could be worse. Some license signings in the next few months might help hold the price in the current range 20 to 40 cents. But remember that earnings from a signing can't be estimated with any degree of accuracy, and remember our previous earnings disappointments after a bunch of signings announcements.

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PTSC's SP could also go up as a result of improvements to the general economy's outlook. How long will it take for a better outlook? Probably more the a couple of quarters.

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This seems to be a longer term investment at this point. Probably a good one because the fundamentals are still very strong. Many still agree including Reuters which still gives PTSC it's top investment rating. But the double wammy seems to rule for now.


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Jun 28, 2008 11:45AM
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