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Message: text of Nick's presentation
As the PC became a commodity, logic designers began the transition from
I tried to cut and paste, but couldn't. This seems to be the one with graphs and charts. Mobile devices are mentioned and the word "multiprocessors" seems to be what will take over microprocessors. There's more but it's 37 pages long. !!
low-margin, cost-performance systems to higher margins in mobile
systems with a design goal of cost-performance per watt. This segment is
represented by the overlap of zero cost, zero delay, and zero power in this
diagram.
Trend one: device mobility. My brother, John, builds houses. In the old days, he had three choices
at a new job site. He could wait for the local utility’s line power installation, he could bring a
generator, or he could work with unpowered tools. Today, he uses battery-powered hand tools that
g
,
p
y,
y p
are powerful and efficient and are good enough to last all day. He’d never go back to tripping over
tangled power cords. The convenience of portable devices that is compelling for construction work
applies across a wide range of occupations and leisure activities. The convenience of mobile
handhelds extends to toothbrushes, hair dryers, telephones, laptop computers, PDAs, and remote
controls. The consumer market for mobile devices is growing rapidly.
T
d t
M d l it M d l i t f
li ti d
l
t S hi ti t d l t
i
Trend two: Modularity. Modular interfaces ease application development. Sophisticated electronic
systems can be assembled with the latest components, spreading sensor and processor development
cost across many applications. This makes many previously unaffordable applications cost effective.
Trend three: ubiquitous access. Almost an extension of device mobility is the demand for
ubiquitous access: voice, video, and data. Not so long ago, I visited a library for information, made
calls when I got to a convenient land-line telephone, and played music or watched movies at home.
No more. Today, I get impatient and frustrated when I can’t answer a question by immediate access
to information on the Internet, when I can’t make or take a call anywhere, and, probably soon, when
I can’t see or hear whatever I want at any time or place. I expect any information I want, whether
it’s historical facts about Civil War battlefields or specific product and pricing information about
items in a nearby store, to be immediately available—and I expect it to be free. Such access will be
so common and so pervasive that everyone will take it for granted.
Trend four: emerging economies. Humans, as Julian Simon demonstrates compellingly in his
writing, are the ultimate resource; they are the cylinders of the world’s wealth-creation engine. The
world economic engine has been running on less than a third of its cylinders. With China, India,
Eastern Europe, and others joining the world economy, that engine will soon engage two thirds of
the world’s population. We are entering a period of unprecedented wealth creation. Demand is the
flip-side of wealth creation; as more individuals produce more, demand rises as newly created
wealth is spent. The world’s producers will scramble to meet the demands of emerging economies
for household appliances and for other goods that the developed world takes for granted.
36
Cost-performance per watt and time to market will dominate design for the
consumer systems that make up the bulk of semiconductor demand.
The semiconductor market will continue to grow in the range of ten to
fifteen percent per year as electronics invades everything from carpeting to
car bumpers. Demand from emerging economies will spur growth rates of
the traditional semiconductor market.
At least one Holy-Grail memory cell, with the speed of SRAM, the density
of DRAM, and the non-volatility of flash memory, will emerge and gain
commercial importance within five years.
Wafer stacking and other techniques will displace transistor-shrinking as
Wafer stacking and other techniques will displace transistor shrinking as
the means to continue historical performance improvements and price
declines in semiconductors.
Self-identifying serial interfaces will become the way to connect disparate
subsystems in single-chip designs, simplifying integration of functional
y
g
p
g
p y g
g
blocks.
Programmable-logic derivatives will become pervasive in the form of
systems that house physical circuits in the way that today’s memory
devices house programs. These programmable-logic chips will be generic
at manufacture and will be customized in the field.
37
Trend one: device mobility. My brother, John, builds houses. In the old days, he had three choices
at a new job site. He could wait for the local utility’s line power installation, he could bring a
generator, or he could work with unpowered tools. Today, he uses battery-powered hand tools that
g
,
p
y,
y p
are powerful and efficient and are good enough to last all day. He’d never go back to tripping over
tangled power cords. The convenience of portable devices that is compelling for construction work
applies across a wide range of occupations and leisure activities. The convenience of mobile
handhelds extends to toothbrushes, hair dryers, telephones, laptop computers, PDAs, and remote
controls. The consumer market for mobile devices is growing rapidly.
T
d t
M d l it M d l i t f
li ti d
l
t S hi ti t d l t
i
Trend two: Modularity. Modular interfaces ease application development. Sophisticated electronic
systems can be assembled with the latest components, spreading sensor and processor development
cost across many applications. This makes many previously unaffordable applications cost effective.
Trend three: ubiquitous access. Almost an extension of device mobility is the demand for
ubiquitous access: voice, video, and data. Not so long ago, I visited a library for information, made
calls when I got to a convenient land-line telephone, and played music or watched movies at home.
No more. Today, I get impatient and frustrated when I can’t answer a question by immediate access
to information on the Internet, when I can’t make or take a call anywhere, and, probably soon, when
I can’t see or hear whatever I want at any time or place. I expect any information I want, whether
it’s historical facts about Civil War battlefields or specific product and pricing information about
items in a nearby store, to be immediately available—and I expect it to be free. Such access will be
so common and so pervasive that everyone will take it for granted.
Trend four: emerging economies. Humans, as Julian Simon demonstrates compellingly in his
writing, are the ultimate resource; they are the cylinders of the world’s wealth-creation engine. The
world economic engine has been running on less than a third of its cylinders. With China, India,
Eastern Europe, and others joining the world economy, that engine will soon engage two thirds of
the world’s population. We are entering a period of unprecedented wealth creation. Demand is the
flip-side of wealth creation; as more individuals produce more, demand rises as newly created
wealth is spent. The world’s producers will scramble to meet the demands of emerging economies
for household appliances and for other goods that the developed world takes for granted.
36
Cost-performance per watt and time to market will dominate design for the
consumer systems that make up the bulk of semiconductor demand.
The semiconductor market will continue to grow in the range of ten to
fifteen percent per year as electronics invades everything from carpeting to
car bumpers. Demand from emerging economies will spur growth rates of
the traditional semiconductor market.
At least one Holy-Grail memory cell, with the speed of SRAM, the density
of DRAM, and the non-volatility of flash memory, will emerge and gain
commercial importance within five years.
Wafer stacking and other techniques will displace transistor-shrinking as
Wafer stacking and other techniques will displace transistor shrinking as
the means to continue historical performance improvements and price
declines in semiconductors.
Self-identifying serial interfaces will become the way to connect disparate
subsystems in single-chip designs, simplifying integration of functional
y
g
p
g
p y g
g
blocks.
Programmable-logic derivatives will become pervasive in the form of
systems that house physical circuits in the way that today’s memory
devices house programs. These programmable-logic chips will be generic
at manufacture and will be customized in the field.
37
http://www.stanford.edu/class/ee380/...
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