I appreciate the effort and at first read I don't find any flaws in your analysis.
But the one thing it doesn't include is the PTSC factor. Every time an event or quarter looks to be straightforward with this company, there's some monkey wrench in the works to change the math.
Favorable Markman, settlement/resolution of trial, quarter after quarter of earnings, etc, etc. Never near expectations in terms of bottom line results. Never underestimate the PTSC factor.