"654 companies engaged...400 that are greater than 1Bil in size. 20 industry segments. Meeting with 96 percent more companies since last SHM

http://agoracom.com/ir/patriot/messa...

I humbly suggest that once revalidated there will be a rapid increase in the number of licensees, with PTSC's revenue share far exceeding the suggested selling price during the following 24 months."

I hope you're right.

In considering the numbers, to date there have been 52 licenses signed. Of those 52, 37 of them are greater than $1B in size, or 71% of them. The average license deal has averaged $5.2M to PDS, assuming there are no contingent revenues in the J3 or any other case (I think a safe assumption considering the language of one-time license payments reiterated several times by PTSC & RG)

Now considering the numbers above, with 400 of 659 companies are over $1B in revenues. That's approximately 60% of them, about 11% less than the make up of the previous 52. Counter that decrease in relative scale of licensing companies with the expectation that after USPTO revalidation, the royalty rate should be higher than it has been, so let's assume that on average, the next 659 licenses will pay on average $7M per license (a 40% increase). However, it seems likely that they won't sign all 659 companies to a license, so let's assume an agressive (my characterization) success rate of 80%. That would result in about 530 companies, of those 659, signing licenses. There are approximately 250 business days in a year when you exclude the regular holidays. If you assume that AFTER revalidation, Alliacense is able to sign one license every other business day, that would mean over the next 2 years, we'd get 250 licenses signed. So 250 licenses x $7M per llicense = $1.75B in 2 years. Assume a high 10% expense rate and the net for TPL & PTSC to split would be $1.575B, with PTSC receiving $788M. Obviously, great numbers, and that's assuming less than half of them sign in that time frame.

Obviously, under that scenario, $200M to $250M for the MMP would make no sense. Realistically, not even $1B would make sense under that scenario. Taking into account, if there was a way to sign 500 companies in 2 years time, PTSC could stand to make over $1.5B in its share alone.

In any scenarios nearing even half of this potential revenue in 2 years time, I would say NO WAY NO HOW to selling our interests in the MMP, as the benefit is not there.

HOWEVER, and this is a big however, in my opinoin, all of the historical information that I've posted is available to everyone. More so, there are plenty of people, both technologically expert, and finacially expert, who could see this same potential, and could also see the same potential in the likely success at the USPTO. Certainly, they are more qualified to make a similar analysis, and certainly more likely to be smarter about it and correct about it than I am. With that in mind, it seems likely that there would be a relative stabilization of the share price if not a slightly increasing trend to the share price over the last year. Instead, we sit under 14 cents per share.

Something, then, doesn't seem to add up. Either the expectations are too high with respect to the revenue potential, or the likelihood of a positive USPTO action is much more remote than we expect. Otherwise, it seems like speculators would be more than willing to step in at these and even higher prices, considering the potential returns. And considering what PTSC is trying to do in M&A, PTSC would suggest this potential success a bit more strongly in order to maximize it's leverage in making deals. Clearly, neither is happening. Why?

I'll grant that the USPTO action is clearly the fly in the ointment of recent date, but all things considerd, the market seems to be expecting the outcome to be less than unfavorable. If it does turn out to be a favorable USPTO result, it seems that in light of your sentiment on how the licensing success will pick up dramatically as a result of that, that you would expect the USPTO ruling to even more dramatically affect the share price. Is that your expectation? If it doesn't, do you have any other explanations as to why it might not cure what ails the PTSC share price?