Expenses vs. Revenue
posted on
Jun 08, 2009 10:07AM
According to the last 10q, in order to operate, PTSC is spending about $2.2M per quarter in general operating expenses based on the third quarter, and a little less when averaged over the last 3 quarters. Also, the Holcom operation is generally profitable, taking in $562K in 3rd quarter, and an average of $771K over the last 3 quarters. Obviously, this is leaving PTSC in a cash BURNING mode of approximately $1.643M in 3rd quarter, and average burn of $1.443M per quarer over the last 3 quarters. Therefore,
The one good thing about the Moore blog is that it has provided some transparency that TPL/PTSC have refused to provide. Looking at Moore's graphed licensing revenue chart, we can see what was collected in fees at least to on a MONTHLY basis, where previously, we could only do it quarterly based on the SEC filings. For example, it appears from his graph that the J3 settlement was approximatley $22M to $24M as in December of 07, per Moore's graph, TPL collected $11M to $12M in fees. Comparing the rest of his graph, it appears to jibe with the overall SEC filings, so I assume he's being truthful, and fairly accurate. WIth that in mind, if TPL did indeed secure a $6M license, either with ADC or SANYO, then PTSC's portion should be at least $2M, provided the 3rd party lawyer fees, and TPL's fees don't exceed $2M of that (which they sure as blankety-blank better not), so PTSC should be profitable for the last quarer, or this one, based on just that one license.
Taking the overall big picture into effect, over the life of the JOINT MMP licesnsing program (post Intel & AMD), the MMP has brought in rougly $250M in licensing fees, and it has cost about $41M to do so, inlcusive of the J3 and other outside legal fees to date. That's roughly 17% of licensing goes to fees. With that in mind, if PTSC is going to burn lets say $1.65M per quarter, like last quarter, then for it to be profitable with just from MMP licensing, PDS has to sell at least $3.86M in licenses per quarter. That's $1.65M to each TPL & PTSC for a total $3.3M net, and an additional 17% or $560K in fees.
While this isn't any great revelation, I just wanted to point out that hopefully, if the license fees are in fact increasing again as the $6M implies, and if the '336 is revalidated as it seems it's on the path to be, I'd assume a revalidated '336 & '584, together with the "revalidated" German patent, should at least be able to pull in $3.86M per quarter. (I would hope that under revalidated parameters, it can do at least double that in reality).
If they can average at least the $3.86M, and continue to be profitable with Holcom, and make Crossflo profitable by the end of the year as implied by RG, then as soon as this becomes clearer through some kind of company communication, (ie SEC filing), I think we'll begin to see some pps appreciation, albeit slow if only under those minimal parameters Until then, I would expect that RG and the BOD will refrain from re-implementing their bonuses, and would hopefully look at either additional salary cuts, or applying some of their pay toward insider stock purchases. IMO, I don't think it hurts for each of us to commnunicate those type of expectations TO THE COMPANY and to let them know that activity to the contrary is not acceptable under the current state of affairs.